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Can Greece Avoid the Lion?
Kenneth Rogoff


s demonstrated in my recent book with Carmen Reinhart  This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly , Greece has been in default roughly one out of every two years since it first gained independence in the nineteenth century.
s demonstrated in my recent book with Carmen Reinhart  This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly , Greece has been in default roughly one out of every two years since it first gained independence in the nineteenth century
 
<ref> http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff65/English Kenneth Rogoff: ''Can Greece Avoid the Lion?'', Project Syndicate February 2010]</ref>
<ref> http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff65/English  
Can Greece Avoid the Lion?
Kenneth Rogoff Project Syndicate February 2010





Revision as of 07:21, 16 April 2010

When Greece joined the Eurozone in 2001, it was less prosperous than the other members[1], but its GDP grew more rapidly over the next eight years and fell less rapidly in the course of 2009. Its unemployment rate nevertheless rose in line with the European average and it was still suffering higher levels of poverty [2].

[3]

The country's national debt rose by about 25 per cent above its above-average pre-crisis level of 100 per cent of GDP[4].

Fiscal factors account for only a third of the spreads[5]

[6]

[7]


s demonstrated in my recent book with Carmen Reinhart This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly , Greece has been in default roughly one out of every two years since it first gained independence in the nineteenth century [8]


in


[1] Robert Chote et al: Britain's Fiscal Squeeze, the Choices Ahead, IFS Briefing Note BN87, September 2009

[9]


2009 2010
2007 2008 2009   Q1    Q2    Q3    Q4    Q1    Q2    Q3    Q4 
GDP (% change on previous period)

Household Debt

(percentage of GDP}
1997 2007
The United States 68 95
The United Kingdom 75 105
The Eurozone 42 60
(Source: approximate transcription from the Turner Report [2])


The growth of financial assets

(Financial assets as a percentage of GDP)
1995 2005
The United States 303 405
The United Kingdom 278 359
The Eurozone 180 303
(Source: Martin Wolf: Fixing Global Finance, page 11, Yale University Press, 2009. )